National Fiscal Work Conference Held, Copper Prices Rose Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment Dec 25]

Overnight, LME copper opened at $8,971/mt, initially reaching a high of $8,988/mt before fluctuating downward throughout the session. Near the close, it hit a low of $8,936/mt, then slightly rebounded to close at $8,967/mt, down 0.34%. Trading volume reached 7,000 lots, and open interest stood at 262,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2502 contract opened at 74,010 yuan/mt, initially declining to a low of 73,710 yuan/mt before fluctuating upward throughout the session. Near the close, it reached a high of 74,150 yuan/mt and finally closed at 74,060 yuan/mt, up 0.18%. Trading volume reached 10,000 lots, and open interest stood at 138,000 lots. Macro side, the National Fiscal Work Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting emphasized implementing a more proactive fiscal policy in 2025, with sustained and stronger efforts, and deploying a stimulus policy package. It also highlighted the need to support domestic demand expansion and significantly boost consumption in 2025. Copper prices rose on this positive sentiment but faced limited gains due to strong US dollar pressure. Fundamentally, supply side, the continuous arrival of imported copper led to pressure on premiums for some sources. Meanwhile, as the year-end approaches, many suppliers entered the settlement phase, resulting in muted quotations. On the consumption side, performance remained mediocre, with domestic copper social inventory showing an inventory buildup and no improvement in downstream demand. In terms of prices, domestic macro news supported market confidence, but the rising US dollar index exerted pressure. Copper prices are expected to stabilize at current levels today.